Nelson doesn’t have the longevity of many other receivers Mike Daniels Jersey
, but his peak production makes him an all-time great."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCDTShareTweetShareShareJordy Nelson’s peak years have gone underappreciatedPatrick Gorski-USA TODAY SportsJordy Nelson’s career was probably too short to get in to the NFL Hall of Fame, which already has a backlog of worthy players, and is voted on by a group of people who shouldn’t be trusted to pick out matching socks. But, while Nelson probably does fall short of enshrinement, it’s probably a closer call than most people realize.There are several analysts out there scoffing at the idea of Nelson as a Hall of Famer, citing his lack of First Team All-Pro selections, his relatively small number of career touchdowns, and other deficiencies in his counting stats that you would expect from a player who had his career cut short. The problem with this approach is that there is more to a player than longevity; there is also peak value. Sabermetrician Jay Jaffe created a system for measuring a player’s worthiness for the Hall of Fame in baseball. His system, known as JAWS, attempts to account for and give credit to players who produce good value for a long time Jason Spriggs Jersey White
, as well as those who produce stellar value for over a shorter time frame. After all, a player who dominates for a shorter period can, in many instances, be more valuable and memorable than a long-term stat-compiler. JAWS breaks players into career WAR and Peak WAR, and averages them together. It then compares the aggregate number to certain established Hall of Fame benchmarks.We don’t have a decent version of WAR (yet) in football, but the principle is still a good one. Nelson will obviously not have great overall counting stats, and while we should not ignore them entirely, we should weight his peak value appropriately. The fact of the matter is that Nelson was, from 2011-2016, no worse than the third-best receiver in football. Looking at Football Outsiders’ primary advanced metrics Womens Bryan Bulaga Jersey
, Nelson finished in the top three in DYAR four times over those six season, and he lost one entire season (2015) to a torn ACL. On a per-play basis Nelson was almost as good, ranking first in DVOA in 2011 and no worse than eighth in any other season. Football Outsiders’ metrics are not the final word on receiver play, but consider that by more conventional metrics, Nelson accomplished some pretty astonishing feats. Over the last 20 years of football, there are only three receivers with at least 300 targets who have pulled in over 65% of their targets for over 13.5 yards per catch. The other two are Brandin Cooks and Tyreek Hill. Nelson is the third, but he has maintained these levels with nearly double the targets of Cooks.If you drop the threshold for catch rate to 63%, all you do to the list is add Marques Colston, Julio Jones, and Ed McCaffrey (and Womens Aaron Jones Jersey
, oddly, Patrick Crayton). Some people like to hold Aaron Rodgers against Nelson, citing the advantage of playing with an all-time great and, in his earlier days, of having outstanding teammates. However, this is often the case for great receivers, and for those who doubt Nelson’s contributions to the Packer passing game, you merely need to look at Aaron Rodgers splits in the pre and post-Nelson eras. Take special note of the 2016 season as well, when Nelson returned after his injury. If Aaron Rodgers made Nelson’s career early, there is a compelling case that Nelson helped make Aaron Rodgers’ career later. The fact of the matter is that Nelson’s peak was on par with many of the all-time greats Womens Reggie White Jersey
, and that peak is underrated by many for various reason. No one combined efficiency with big play ability like Nelson, and while longevity will ultimately doom his case, another year or two on a healthy ACL would have made him a no-brainer for Canton. In the Packer pantheon, he is no worse than the fourth best receiver in team history behind Don Hutson and James Lofton, but right there with Sharpe, another great player with an exceptional peak who saw his even shorter career undone by an injury. Nelson won’t get proper consideration for the Hall, but don’t let anyone tell you he shouldn’t be close. Matt LaFleur may restrict Rodgers’ ability to adjust plays at the line."WhiteFanposts Fanshots Sections The APC PodcastPackers Film RoomFantasy Football AdviceCSTShareTweetShareShareCheese Curds 2/28: Fewer audibles for Aaron Rodgers?Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY SportsA new head coach always brings an adjustment period. That was true when Mike McCarthy took over in Green Bay. It was true when Mike Sherman got the job as well, just as it was with Ray Rhodes and Mike Holmgren before him.And so it will be with Matt LaFleur. But what will that adjustment look like?We don’t know yet, but it’s going to be different for Aaron Rodgers and the rest of the Packers offense. LaFleur emphasized his commitment to the run game and balance at the Combine on Wednesday.But it won’t be just that. The Packers offense is going to be entirely different in 2019, and how they navigate the changes the new coach adjustment period will bring will be a defining feature of this upcoming season.Aaron Rodgers still ‘can’ change plays Womens Davante Adams Jersey
, but audibles not abundant | ESPNRodgers’ displeasure with Mike McCarthy’s play calls – and subsequent audibles – was a consistent storyline last season. It sounds like he’ll have a lot fewer opportunities to make changes this season. Graham expected to return; status of Matthews, Cobb and Perry uncertain | Packers NewsIn his news conference at the Combine, Brian Gutekunst seemed to indicate that Jimmy Graham would be back in 2019.Case for and against Packers trading for OLB Justin Houston | Packers WireIn an appearance on Ian Rapoport’s podcast, Gutekunst predicted we’ll see more trades this offseason. The Packers Wire takes a look at one such potential trade here.WIAA complaint filed after high school basketball incident involving Mike McCarthyWe know Mike McCarthy can get a little heated when calls don’t go his way, but that’s a bad look when 1) he’s no longer coaching and 2) it’s a high school basketball game.Emma would love a letter from your dog | On MilwaukeeEmma is a seven-year-old with an inoperable brain tumor and wants to receive letters from dogs. Dog owners of the APC community, do the thing.